Business Case’s og Cost/Benefit-beregninger gør mere skade end gavn
Fordi de narrer læserne til at tro, at projekter er lig med penge i kassen. Ledelse forledes til at tro, at hvis de siger ja til projektet, så vil pengene mere eller mindre komme spadserende af sig selv en gang i fremtiden, og det er en grov simplificering.
Ansvaret er uklart
Med mindre der er tale om lovkrav eller andre påbud, så forsøger projektansøgninger uanset hvad, vi kalder dem, grundlæggende at vise, at pengene er givet godt ud. Vi tjener lidt mere; end vi investerer. Der er balance mellem Cost og Benefit. Sådan tænker forretningsmanden, og så gør vi selvfølgelig det samme nede i projektledelsen, for det er jo den førstnævnte, der skal sige ja.
Her glemmer vi imidlertid helt, at projektet gør ud på at skabe Benefit, og ikke på at skabe Cost! Men det er det, der oftest sker, for så snart godkendelsen foreligger, så lægger vi os i selen for at sikre, at tidsplanen og budgettet holder; men hvem lægger sig i selen for at Benefit nås? Vi stoler på, at projektets leverancer automatisk fører til en guldregn, men ingen er ansvarlige for, at det sker.
Kroner er den mest usikre måde at retfærdiggøre projekter på
Da projektudgifterne jo er i kroner, så skal Benefit-siden også helst være i kroner – ”ellers kan ledelsen nok ikke gennemskue det…” tænker vi nede i projektledelsen! Hvis projektet f.eks. optimerer vores lager og dermed reducerer det med 10%, og der ligger for 100 mill. kr. på lageret, ja så vil projektet spare 10 mill. kr., og hvis projektet så koster 8 mill. kr., så er det en genial idé.
Her introducerede vi imidlertid en forudsætning om lagerets størrelse for at retfærdiggøre projektet; men hvem kan styre den? Og hvad med renteniveauet, hvis det næsten er gratis at låne penge. Betyder størrelsen af lagerbindingen så noget overhovedet? Når man introducerer penge, introducerer man et hav af usikkerheder.
Kroner er den dårligste enhed at måle projekter med.
I ovenstående eksempel kunne man spørge om, hvad der sker, hvis konjunkturerne vender og vores lager i mellemtiden skrumper ind til 70 mill. kr., er projektet så mislykkedes? Nej, naturligvis ikke. Vi har stadig optimeringen på plads, og uanset lagerets størrelse, så er det 10% mindre; end det ellers ville være. Når vi blander de fordele, som projektets giver os sammen med penge, så mister vi grundlaget for at opgøre projektets succes.
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